What if I told you that the US housing market is standing on shaky ground, teetering perilously close to a complete freeze? That's right, the current situation is so dire that only 1% of homes have changed hands, with a widening bid-ask spread causing a deadlock. In this riveting conversation with Dr. Kirk Elliott, we unravel the complexities of the market's predicament, probing deeper into jobless claims, tech stock jitters, and a disappointing AI boom that may forewarn an imminent recession. We also scrutinize the Biden administration's perspective on inflation amidst these foreboding signs.
Imagine a world where the US dollar loses its global reserve currency status. It seems far-fetched, doesn't it? However, this could be our reality, resulting in profound consequences, particularly for the BRICS nations. Dr. Elliott and I consider the fallout of such a shift in global economic power in this episode. We revisit historical instances of the US government confiscating assets and discuss today's system of bail-ins. We also ponder over Central Bank Digital Currency's role and the need for financial readiness. So, are we going to sit back and react when the time comes, or are we going to be proactive? Listen to our analysis to arm yourself with knowledge. Because when it comes to your financial future, forewarned is forearmed. So let's get prepared together!
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update. My name is Sean Morgan, I'm the host of the Sean Morgan report over at Amp News and I'm here with Dr Kirk Elliott. So, kirk, I took a look at zero hedge today and had a lot of interesting headlines. I know how you have a lot of things you want to cover, but the numbers of the real economy are not looking so great, and a very interesting stat that I saw was that just 1% of US homes have changed hands in 2023. That's the lowest on record. So that's a really weird situation for our housing market to be in, and I wanted to get your take on that. And then, once I get your take, I'll read the part in the article where they explain why we're in this weird situation.Speaker 2:
Yeah, I'd like to hear their explanation.Speaker 1:
I'll give you the explanation then, if you want. First they said well, I'll just say this is what their explanation was, and this is an interesting financial quandary to be in. The reality, why prices have not collapsed is that the bid ask spread for any home currently for sale has ballooned to levels where the market is effectively frozen. There's simply no possibility for the bid and asked to meet somewhere in the middle in the range, where you've got people hoping to buy who are already tapped out before being asked to pay even more, while the sellers are already wealthy and they're seeing it as fire sale price and they don't want to go for it. So we've got no buying and no selling happening. Everyone's just staying with the inventory that they have, and that's not healthy.Speaker 2:
Well, see, a lot of people are there. They're losing their jobs, right, wages are coming down, and they may have bought a house over the last year or two and thought, man, I can't afford this, I got to sell it. So they want to sell it and they think I've got to get out of it what I put into it, right, I don't want to lose money on this, but that's not where the markets are justifying. Right now, the markets are collapsing. So now this is, in layman's terms, what you just said. That bid and ask spread is the sellers don't want to lose money on their house, like anything. Everyone always thinks that what they have is worth more than it really is right, or there might be a function behind it. Let's say, when you have to pay the real trophies, it's like, man, I'm going to lose $40,000 that I'm going to have to cough up. I don't have it Right, so they can't sell it at a lower price. But the markets don't justify their high price. So therefore, there's nothing. It's a stalemate, right, all right, this is what we're seeing. But I think, as the years go on, this is going to come down a lot and those people are going to wish that they would have sold at just a $30,000 loss, rather than maybe a hundred or 150 down the road or worse than that. They just default on it and the whole thing gets taken away by the banks.Speaker 1:
I agree. There's another weird indicator where all the Airbnb inventory is not working out the way investors had thought it would. They thought, oh, I'll buy an extra house, I'll just rent it out on Airbnb. But then no one is renting it out and now they're stuck with this investment property and they don't know how to get rid of it. So you're right, I think, when you say that the real market value is lower than what the sellers are willing to sell for. And this is kind of this phase before a market downturn where people capitulate right. Other really weird not weird, but just very inline indicators for a coming recession is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey said 10th straight month of contraction for manufacturing and we've got jobless claims rose last week adjusted initial claims at January highs and the tech stocks are spooked Netflix, tesla, taiwan semi earnings and the world's largest chip maker slash guidance. So the AI boom is failing to deliver. So people keep thinking that something is going to save the stock market. The latest trend and we certainly saw a pop with AI but this is not sustainable.Speaker 2:
No, it's not sustainable. And you look at these. So we went over those real estate numbers, right, it's like okay, there's even worse ones than that, which is that's existing inventory, right, Buyers don't want to sell their stuff for lower than what they paid for it. But you look at construction on the flip side of that, that's the other part of real estate. Us housing starts down 8%. This isn't for a year, this is over the last 30 days, so these numbers are for 30 days worth. Building permits down 3.7%. Multifamily construction units started down 11% and basically just for for rental units, like apartment buildings, the number of permits that are that are being going out there for construction companies to build these things down 13.5% in one month. So the average is a 10% contraction in the demand for construction in simply one month. That's massive right. So how can Biden go out there and say, yeah, we've won this war on inflation, the recession's over. This is pretty good. We can, we can just pause now on these rate hikes.Speaker 1:
And it's like no no, they won the war on housing inflation because the housing prices are going to come down.Speaker 2:
So yeah, so they think that they've won the war on inflation because real estate's collapsing. It's like, okay, I guess there's more ways to make your numbers like justified than one, but that's just insane. That is not. People would say, yeah, I'll take, I'll take the war on inflation being one of. The economies are robust and growing right and people can afford those, those prices, right. But but this is not what we have. The yeah, it looks like they won this war on inflation and housing because nobody can afford to buy a house and the prices are absolutely tanking. So they're going to spin that as a positive, saying look, we're beaten. Inflation where anyone that's looking to buy a house or sell a house is thinking crud, I, there's no inventory there, the buyers aren't selling. That, the buyers are the sellers, saying we're not making any money, we're not going to sell. That's like. This is. This is a brutal domino effect that's happening right underneath our nose.Speaker 1:
And what we're seeing is a wealth transfer, where I remember when BlackRock was during the housing boom, was buying up all the single family homes and their plan was oh, we'll just rent them all out to the serfs. So what we have is less people owning homes and more people renting at inflated prices, and it's just stretching people. You noticed a couple of other really interesting headlines. Nigel Farage, the famous British politician, has been debanked. So you know this is crazy. You never saw this years ago, where people all of a sudden lost their ability to do banking. But now we've got Kanye West and Nigel Farage, and anyone who happens to be a controversial conservative figure can no longer bank with certain institutions.Speaker 2:
Yeah. So we've been warning about this exact thing, sean, for now months on our shows. So it's about your ability to buy or sell, according to the World Economic Forum, is because there's programmable money and if we don't like what you're spending your money on, we're going to cut you off. And then you've got Bank for International Settlements saying the use of funds has to match up with their ideology or they're not going to allow bank wires. So the common theme is ideology your views has to match up with theirs or no money. Well, that's been our warning, and people have called me and said Kirk, it's such a radical view and that's never going to happen. It's like, no, it's not my words, it's theirs. And then they did it. So Nigel Farage why was he debanked? Because, okay, he's a very high net worth person at a very private level, concierge level bank called COU TTS. So this is basically a wealth management firm, a bank for private individuals that have high net worth. You would think they're going to take really good care of these people, right? Well, no, I mean. What's to think? That you've got Nigel Farage, who's high net worth, at a very prestigious bank you know, been around since the 1600s, one of the eighth oldest banks in the world. I mean this is amazing, right? So yeah, you and me and anybody else who just has an account at JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America or whatever right it's like. What's to make us think that we're not going to get debanked if we say something crazy?Speaker 1:
Well, they will keep working with the Jeffrey Epstein's. We've seen that in the news that, no matter how many warning signs came up, they just wanted to keep clients like Jeffrey Epstein. But a billionaire like Kanye West is kicked to the curb for being controversial. So it's not about profit. You know, this is about ideology, like you said, it's already happened to me, got kicked off of PayPal and Venmo and Patreon, and it's already happened to the truckers in Canada who and the people who supported the truckers they got their accounts frozen. So this is a major power play.Speaker 2:
Well, it is a major power play and see, see so how it's lied to him saying, oh, your financial threshold has fallen below that to be a member of the private bank. He said, well, that's garbage. It didn't. But then they saw, because he's a high net worth public figure, they had a 40 page memorandum that described why they had to do this. So in this memorandum, in an explosive, like 40 page memo, Brexit was mentioned 86 times Russia, 144 times PEP, 10 times support for Trump, plus views on immigration, net zero and the vaccine. We're also listed as reasons to exit. There you go. There's the tabular list. They have the list right. It's like when you count the words of the reasons why, it's like, okay, ideology does make a difference. Everything you and I have been warning people about. He just got it right. He just got debanked because of his views, because of his conservative political views and his ideology. This is why I mentioned these things with you on these shows and talk about the Bank for International Settlements saying the ideology is going to be the cause of ownership or non ownership. This is why I talk about Dr Pipa Mamagran at the World Government Summit saying programmable money means the ability to cut you off from buying or selling if your digital social profile doesn't add up. It's like, wow, I bet Port Farage's social credit score is probably pretty low right now because he got debanked, but to me that's almost like a badge of honor for him. It's like, yeah, he's stuck true to his guns. He's just going to have to find another bank that will take his hard earned money. But those are becoming harder and harder to come by with consolidation in the banking world, where big banks are buying up medium and medium buying up small banks. They need consolidation for their evil plan to separate people from their money to work, because probably independent bankers would never do something like that.Speaker 1:
We actually have to be grateful to see these canaries in the coal mine now so that we can anticipate and plan for the future, because you bet whenever I had my debanking experience that it forced me to figure out how to be resilient, and now we're experiencing that as a collective, All conservatives worldwide have to figure out how do we get our privacy, how do we have a parallel financial system and, of course, gold and silver plays perfectly into that because it's private, the government doesn't track it and it's part of our ability to interact with each other privately. Maybe I want to buy a car from you, Kirk, and I don't want the FedNow system to be able to analyze that transaction for whatever reason, because it's going to be a gas puzzler and I'm going to get a lower social credit score because of climate change. I can pay you in gold for your car if I want to.Speaker 2:
Absolutely. I mean gold and silver are amazing in a barter type world because they're not digital. You're not a digital slave in their digital world. It's a private transaction that's portable. You can carry it with you Gold for high ticket items, silver for low ticket items, just day-to-day stuff. I mean it really is a de facto currency and a worst case scenario might be your ticket to freedom. But outside of that worst case scenario, well, it's just a stinking good investment. Right now, silver is up literally like 9 percent in the last week. It's up over 45 percent in the last six months, over 110 percent in the last three years. I mean it's just doing really well. But to me we're beyond the point of just investing into something because it's doing well and it minimizes your risk. We also have to consider the future ramifications of our freedom. Tangeable assets like gold and silver are the pathway to financial freedom because it's a private transaction that doesn't make you a digital slave in their digital world.Speaker 1:
Something you've been talking about is this meeting in Durban, south Africa, of the BRICS nations, the Russian embassy alluding that it could be gold backed. We've seen various signals that the US dollar might lose its prominence. You told me about an interesting headline with the IMF about Chinese currency being used to pay off debt. Can you explain that one?Speaker 2:
Well, just two days ago, the International Monetary Fund said, hey, countries settling with each other on their debt, let's say Brazil, oh, packed to stand some money and say, okay, instead of using the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, they said, okay, we can use the Chinese Remnimbi. The Remnimbi is the Chinese internal currency that's used for day-to-day stuff in China. The yuan is their external currency for international settlement. The IMF said instead of the US dollar, we're going to use the internal Chinese currency for settlements of all debts between countries. It's like, oh my word, like last nail in the coffin for the US dollar's death. It's like this now, international settlement. What's next? The only other thing left is to completely dismantle the US economy. Because they took out the petrodollar Right. Now they've got international settlements for anything going away. I mean the demand for the US currency stinks because interest rate cycle and everything else happening and our massive amount of debt. So the only thing that's left is to collapse the country internally and not just take away these given statuses for the US dollar that all international settlements are traded in it, that all oil is traded in it, Right? Well, they're doing that by dismantling the banking system. So if people lose confidence in the US currency altogether. It's lights out that BRICS nations have a clear path to success because nobody will trust the US dollar.Speaker 1:
Especially for those bonds, those reserves. The US has a very robust bond market. Nothing else compares to it. The Chinese currency doesn't have a good bond market and so if the BRICS launch this currency that's gold backed, then everyone's going to have to have gold reserves to back that currency. Then we're going to have a new reserve currency, because no one's going to want the stupid US dollars that are backed by nothing, Right 100%?Speaker 2:
I mean I wouldn't, would you? I mean, this was the problem Roosevelt had back when they decided they were going to confiscate gold back in the 30s, because back then gold and the US dollar were convertible. You could go to the bank, you could go to Sears, spend 20 bucks or one ounce of gold that said $20 on it. And after World War I, the US was bankrupt, like literally no money. So they started issuing war bonds and Roosevelt said hey, america, you have to want these things. You have to bail out America. And say, no way, we've got gold. Why do we want something? We think you're bankrupt. So he forced the issue in confiscated gold. So people would have to go into their stupid war bonds Right? So fast forward to today. Gold is no longer backs, our currency at all. Right, that's been decades since that. That's been around. So it's not a currency, that, it's just an investment like anything else. And under Dodd Frank, basically they said, oh, if we got to bail somebody out, we'll just do bail ins, right? So this is the new methodology for governments confiscating people's assets is through a bail in, not by going door to door and saying, hey, we want your gold, you want your silver, we want your tangible assets, whatever you have. No, they're just going to do with the flip of a switch and say, okay, 10%, one off special purpose tax at bail in. You had 100 grand in your bank account tonight. You're going to have 90,000 tomorrow. That's the easy path to government confiscation of people's assets. Trying to find a private asset that's out of depository or buried in your backyard or wherever you put it, it's going to be difficult at best Right, and so it's easy to get to the end. It's only 2% of the population on gold. Only 0.9% owned silver. It's not a big enough pie for anybody to be worried about. On confiscation, in my opinion, when they can go after the digital low lying fruit the bank accounts 98% of America has, that's easy.Speaker 1:
That's a good point, because I think that might be one thing that people are thinking to themselves oh what if the government tries to confiscate my gold? But you're right that they would obviously confiscate the thing that they already have, can attach to your bank accounts seamlessly, like they already do. The IRS already does it. So my thought, as we're closing out this talk, is about being proactive versus reactive, because if people are choosing to be proactive now and anticipate what could unfold in the coming months and years, it's going to be a lot different than after. Like, for example, now we have international debts settled almost exclusively in US dollars, but if we fast forward six months or one year, we're going to see more Chinese currency, perhaps the BRICS currency, whatever it might be being settled in. That's a really different valuation for the US dollar. That's a really different valuation for gold. I'm thinking to myself if people can start to anticipate and be proactive now about their decisions, rather than reacting once the BRICS already make the announcement in August, once the IMF changes their policy again with international settlements of debts. You know what I mean. It seems kind of silly to wait until the sky falls rather than just figure out a protection plan now you know what I mean.Speaker 2:
No, you never want to wait until the sky falls, I mean at some point when Central Bank digital currency hits us. Fednow is alive and well, which actually, as of July 20th today, you've got JPMorgan Chase. This is bringing the FedNow app live to its customers, right so? And it's going to continue to roll from bank to bank to bank, to bank to bank. I would rather be nine months early, six months early, three months early, than one day late, because one day late might mean you don't get the funds out.Speaker 1:
Right, yeah, that's a good point, especially depending on how active you are politically. If you're the kind of person who watches Badlands media, then they've already identified you. So thank you. I don't want to scare people too much, but it literally already happened to me. They know what keywords are associated with you and we know from that 40-page report exactly what keywords one of them is Trump that they don't like. So thank you, kirk, for educating us today. There's a link in the description below. People can get that free consultation with your team. So take advantage of that now while it's still available. And thank you, kirk, we'll see you next week.Speaker 2:
Yeah, we'll see you.