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The Sean Morgan Report
The Sean Morgan Report
The Great Reset Ep 7: Central Bankers Declare Temporary Victory with John Person
"The Great Reset" is a show about the future of finance. Money is power, and there is a historic fight to control the mechanisms of power. What people, groups, and nations will control the financial systems of the future? And what will be their medium of exchange?
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Morgan, we're gonna talk about the future of finance with John Person, 39 year trading professional. Co-founder of Jperson Asset Management. Tell me about all these central banks, all these central bankers kind of repeating the same line, the same speech recently about how they did it or the inflation's in check. It's what they're doing is working. They're almost done with their campaign. Give me your evaluation of those statements and how the markets reacted.
Speaker 2:Okay, great point. And we all know that inflation has been becoming, for the last year and a half, a heavy weight on not just consumers but now anyone that's invested in the market, now the central bankers. I wouldn't say that without a doubt they're in a concerted effort in a one world economy to be in concert together. If we go back first, before I answer that question, we have a lot of banks here. The regional banks in the United States had a lot of issues because rates went up a lot faster and higher and a lot of these banks felt that well, depositors don't wanna put their money in anything. We're not gonna offer any high rates for just parking their money here. So let's use that money and we'll invest it into what's known as swaps derivative swaps with a rate yield between the United States Fed funds rate in the European central bank set rate. So what happens in March when a couple people come into Silicon Valley Bank and say we want our money right now? They made a draw on the bank and the bank couldn't cash out those derivatives because they bought them here and they could be safe if they held it to maturity. Maturity might be another year out If someone says I want my money today and you got 364 more days that you have to hold, that you got a problem and you gotta sell it a loss. So the bank took this huge loss. So that's one of the elements of why higher interest rates, and Jay Powell, who is the head of the Federal Reserve, and Christine Lagarde, who's the head of the European central bank, and Bailey, who's head of the Bank of England, all recently, we've had those three central banks all come out in the last five business days stating we're not gonna raise interest rates for XYZ reasons. And so what they're saying is one thing, but what the real reason is? They all raised rates too far, too fast to help rein in inflation. In the meantime, they've caused to solve one problem, they've created multiple others. So I think they're all in concert together to pause, and that's all we've gotten, and they've all three mentioned. There's the inflation is coming down. Well, we know egg prices are down. That's great.
Speaker 2:But what we have seen which is interesting, despite the war and the terrible act that Hamas did against Israel and created escalated tension in the Middle East, what we have seen is that oil prices have not escalated. That a lot of people thought was Crude oil did not go to 100. Reformulated blend gasoline the stuff we put in our car that did not go to $3 on the futures market. In fact we're trading around 220 right now. We're down around 17% from last month's prices. So there is a trajectory of certain things creating a detrend in inflation and that gave them room to pause. So, with that backdrop story, what does this mean? I believe that all central bankers, the three big heads European central bank, the US and again the Bank of England they all need to make sure that their interest rates are uneven keel. If one country goes up more than the other, it's gonna cause a distortion against money flows around the three big major economies. So therefore they part.
Speaker 1:What about how Japan's doing something different, and what about what is China doing?
Speaker 2:All right. So in the Asian market, especially Japan, japan's been in a zero interest rate policy for, I guess, my whole lifetime. That's a lot, because I got gray hair right, john. So they are talking up they're talking up a potential change, but they haven't really moved aggressively any way one way or another on their interest rate policies. They've been talking it up.
Speaker 2:As far as China is concerned, with their massive lockdown COVID policy that they had, their economy was at almost a standstill to a degree. So China, they're back into the building up phase right now and as they start to build up, that's gonna reaccelerate one of two things In the next year, inflation could revamp higher, or they're going to and this is the tricky part. I don't know where we're gonna stand with foreign government relationships with China but if they revamp all their manufacturing, their productivity goes up, producing more goods and services at a cheaper rate, thus supplying the world with parts again, and that reduces inflation. So those are two concepts that I'm not quite sure I haven't put my finger on. I just know that if you increase productivity, if you put out more goods and services at less energy and cost, that's deflationary. So China might be part of the story that if they get their manufacturing back in place and the trade war starts to subside, Remember, we've got current President Biden saying we're not selling you any semiconductors and we don't like you interfering with Taiwan, and so we've got escalation of tensions with China right now.
Speaker 2:And so President Xi I mean he's pretty much in control over in China and has some pretty good partners right now, if you think about it, and so he doesn't need the maybe the US, because he can trade with Russia, middle East, india, they can go to South America, for example. Americans soil we still need, you know, barbie dolls and things like that for Christmas. So we do still need China's manufacturing. But, all in all, this is a world market that things need to. If we escalate tensions amongst the superpowers in that regards, we're going to have more issues.
Speaker 1:Right and that presents a whole bunch of investment opportunities for, for example, raw materials that we were getting abroad that maybe we want to source domestically, that kind of thing. But so the markets reacted to all of these central bankers pausing favorably. We've had the indexes up around 1%. You've been trading doing pretty well. The last week you said tell me about some of the stocks that you've been keeping your eye on, or some of the trades or sectors or indexes that you've been paying attention to.
Speaker 2:Absolutely. So a couple of things that I like is I liked again AMD. Their earnings were a little scary for me. I was long AMD because I believe in the artificial intelligence super chip and I wanted to hear about. There's two companies, maybe three. Intel is on the uptick and they've got. They're on the uptick in the sense that they haven't really sold off. Relative to comparing Nvidia a month ago's price to Intel and video went down, intel held up. So Intel, I think, still has a lot more upside in the next, say, six months to 18 months.
Speaker 2:Amd is on any computer you have it's. You've got AMD and you've got Nvidia. So there's no way where else to go. And I think AMD, which is in their last quarterly report not the one yesterday, but they were mentioning their MI 300 processing chip and they did. Mrs Sue did mention that in the conference call yesterday and gave some positive guidance going forward. So I think AMD's got strong potential within the next six months to maybe trade into the 120. So I'm long AMD for that reason.
Speaker 2:Looking at other trades that I have, one today we noticed that with where interest rates are, housing has not I mean new home construction has gone up. We know that. Those are the numbers. Everyone's buying a new home because no one's selling existing homes. If people are buying a new home, well they got to put something in that home. Are they going to lazy boy? Are they going to? Where are they buying their furniture from? Is it Macy's home goods? Is it home goods with TJ Maxx? Is it Wayfair? It could be a combination of all things there, and so we did get a bounce out of Wayfair.
Speaker 2:One trade that I like is for the holidays and it had kind of a bad earnings reaction this morning, but it's bounced higher is Etsy. Etsy Now. I just bought some of that today at 60. I'm looking at my screen right now. I bought just a little bit at $61.94. So I think it's a low risk because they've already sucked the, I think, a lot of risk out of that trade. I also am on Google. I'm also in for a seasonal holiday trade down here Goodbatter and different Macy's, I think Macy's which owns, again, federated Department stores Bloomingdale's I think they may see an uptick out of this holiday season. I bought some Morgan Stanley. I think Morgan Stanley is another one that, in the banking sector, could do a lot better in this environment. They had pretty decent earnings in Q2.
Speaker 2:And then, finally, nike. There's just no chance that you can't be long, nike with the and I'm going to call it the Taylor Swift factor, and people don't, maybe not like. What does Nike have to do with Taylor Swift? Well, she's dating a Kansas City chief and she wears that jersey. There's a lot of Swifties out there that might want to flock. He's the. I think he was the fifth highest selling jersey from the NFL apparel, which is all made by Nike. So NFL authorized jerseys are all sold by, or created or made by, manufactured by Nike. Now, another thing is, I know I'm just gonna say that Taylor Swift factor, but you got the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Jets. There's a lot of jet fans out there in mass quantity. It would be, you know, instead of like the, the, the Carolina Panthers. You know their base is not as great as New York. So Jersey sales when your team behind your team.
Speaker 2:This is that time frame where people will make more, maybe, perhaps, purchases. Then again, what else does Nike make? Let's see soccer shoes, football, baseballs we're talking cleats and, and while I think there's a, there was a discussion on a couple analysts that Downplayed Nike, saying their product was stale, and then someone said that there's another company called on cloud that is stealing Market share form. I don't believe that's true whatsoever. On cloud, I think if you are familiar with this product, the symbols, stock symbols, o, n and they're made, you know, swiss design. They're a fashionable shoe, sneaker, running shoe, but it's more for, I think, an older crowd. They're more of an expensive sneaker that would maybe what?
Speaker 2:Wear a driving shoe that wants to look hip and cool. An older guy Like me possibly, instead of wearing a dress shoe, I could get away with an on cloud. I wouldn't wear a Nike cleat or I wouldn't be wearing a Nike running shoe or basketball high top because I don't play those sports. I'm, you know, I'm more in the ancient golf world now. So, with that said, I think there is a better On a global scale.
Speaker 2:I think there's a better opportunity for Nike and if the Federal Reserve can pause which they have around the globe and pause on interest rates, bringing back a little bit of confidence not forever, but just for a little bit of confidence for the next 30, 45 days as we enter in the holiday season, this could incite Consumer confidence and boost better Christmas sales. What are people gonna buy. I don't think people are gonna buy frivolous things. People are not stupid with their money. I think people are gonna look for deals and people are gonna look for Necessities, so there are gonna get. Maybe they're gonna buy a messy soccer shirt, you know. So Soccer is very popular and I think Nike is gonna have should have a pretty good season this holiday.
Speaker 1:Anyway, that's my long Assertation that's interesting, that's an interesting analysis said, and I live in Brazil. I've lived in Brazil for almost six years and it's given me a different perspective on global brands, because I've never heard of on cloud. No one in Brazil wears on cloud. But if you give Brazilians Five things that they want to buy, they're gonna choose five different brands and they're all global. Brands are mostly American-based brands and I have people coming up to me because I'm American and they know I go to the United States and they say when you go to the United States, can you bring me back? And then I can name the five things in one of them's Nike sneakers.
Speaker 1:Okay so so that type of brand is just so strong globally and, like you said, okay, they're gonna be other brands that come and go, but until someone's making a basketball shoe that competes with Jordans, then then we can look at market share. You know, but on the cloud, fancy fashion shoes are not competing with those Jordans, right?
Speaker 2:So yeah, okay, so that's that input. I hope your listeners heard that. That is like I go to America. I get a shopping list. This is what I want. That's cool.
Speaker 1:Right? Well, I'll tell you the other brands too. I mean Apple. I mean they want iPhone. The iPhone's the number one product. But there's other Apple products that they really like, like Mac books and Apple watch and these other things. But even some brands that that we think are a little bit passe Are still really popular in Brazil, like Tommy Hilfiger and gap and things that were popular in the 90s.
Speaker 2:Houston is the name of this, the comp, the parent company and the stock symbol. The ticker symbols pvh. Phillips van Houston is the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger. People in America won't wear a Tommy Hilfiger, but you go to South America, you go to Latin America, I mean, and you go to Europe. It's interesting, even in Italy, in Rome, tommy Hilfiger is a popular blunt brand, it's correct.
Speaker 1:It's pretty interesting and if you go to Miami or you go to Florida, where there's a big Latin community who they fly in to Florida just to shop, and they'll go to the Tommy Hilfiger Outlets and the gap outlets, you know, and buy everything there very yeah that is true, yeah, so that's a as good of a trade.
Speaker 2:Let me look at pvh. While we're on the phone, while you're looking there, I'm gonna.
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Speaker 2:Well, that's interesting. What are you?
Speaker 1:yeah, what is this? It looks like Michael.
Speaker 2:Blomberg on the bottom left. Who could it be? I was gonna say, well, I think I don't know who the upper left is.
Speaker 1:I know who the bottom left is well, you'll never guess who these two men are, who are Destroying capitalism, destroying America. They have a very devious plan and Porter Stansbury created a documentary about these two men Is. The name of the documentary is the two men, and we have a link to watch this free documentary below. So check that, check out that free documentary the two men. I know who the upper left is now.
Speaker 2:Was I not supposed to give those names out?
Speaker 1:I think it'd be cool for people to discover for themselves when they click on the link below to find out. Yeah, it was pretty obvious to me that one of them was Michael Bloomberg. You put a little square here. You can still tell who he is. Yeah, so what did you find when you were doing your research there?
Speaker 2:Um, pvh. I mean you know it doesn't. I think there's probably some better upside. I mean it's okay, but I I think there's probably some better upside on Uh, nike. In my humble opinion, uh, nike looks like it's probably got another 20 25 percent to the upside between now and, say, february, um it, and it might come sooner. I also think that, uh, some of the department stores that will capture Target, for example, way undervalued.
Speaker 2:Uh, I know they had an issue. Uh, uh, a pr nightmare, let's call it. But bottom line is let's get through the pr nightmare. What cures pr nightmares? Well, budweiser just did something to get themselves out of the hall, sort of speak with uh, that um, uh was an extreme Uh mix martial arts or w worldwide wrestling sponsorship and that had, you know, a boost. What happens to brands when they fall out of favor? That people like Not the brand but the product. Right, beer. What solves a problem? If you want to get back into selling beer? Lower your price and and and. Put that out. That'll cure any marketing that you need to spend, or apologies, or anything like that. Put lower prices out and you're gonna track the. You know everyone will look back and go Well, give me a pack.
Speaker 2:Especially christmas time with target and with target it's the same story. I mean target, I don't think you know people want to say, gee, I don't like what they did, but it's like I have to go to walmart and I have to go here and target's right there. Ah, I'm going to target. So I think consumers are kind of finicky. They may say one thing, but they still bet with their wallets and if target comes out, they do another thing.
Speaker 2:Here in america, for a lot of people that Live maybe check to check, and that's a big problem in america. But despite that, there is the holidays and no matter how tough times are, most people will have something on the christmas tree for their children. And and target does something still that maybe and not a lot of the store is doing. It's called layaway programs, so people can buy something and put money down every week and in the products there for them. They may not be able to afford it right now, but you know, whatever the, the, the cabbage patch doll of 2023 is, for example, whatever the, the toy du jour is, um, people can go and say, here, hold this for me, here's a deposit and I'll pay every week.
Speaker 1:And and and and that's something that is a very Uh, there is some loyalty to that type of program with target people don't, maybe really that that, speaking of, uh you know, comparing brazil to the us, uh, brazil's been has a layaway economy where they they do everything by by payment plans. Anything that they cost more than Uh $50 is going to be on a payment plan here. So so, uh, I know, if, if wages, if the wage situation, if the wages aren't keeping up with the inflation, uh the prices of things, then you're probably going to see more of this type of uh Adjustment so that the consumers can afford to pay for things. And I have seen that in e-commerce, when I buy things from american sites, that sometimes now they give me the option to do payments.
Speaker 2:So I'm gonna, I'm gonna delve because I know we're gonna run out of time and I'm gonna go. What? What makes sometimes my mind work, which, according to my wife, is a problem? But, um, we know that there we have a? Um, a situation here in congress. We have a president that wants to give more money to ukraine, more money to help support israel southern border, and is asking for more money. We now have a congress that says we're tired of giving money out and there's going to be a battle. But, either way, military spending will still happen.
Speaker 2:And if we take tanks, or money that would be diverted to tanks, and we're going to increase tank uh and or military Hardware and send it to ukraine and send it over to israel, um, there's a couple things that we need. We got steel that's gone up and it's you know, you could look at prices of us steel, which has been going higher. But what goes in those tanks are our engines and diesel engine. We don't use teslas in tanks and military operations, right? So Cummings is, cmi is a stock ticker it's down a little bit today, but they do make the diesel engines for military and tanks. So that's number one.
Speaker 1:Number two and, of course, all the construction Machines. Yeah, we want to go construction. It's gonna be a global Biggy got.
Speaker 2:Diesel engines, it's Cummings, uh, caterpillar also, but Cummings, um. So that's one that I would be watchful of. But here's one that's a little off the chart kind of thinking if you have a tank that's military green but you're sending it to the middle east, you're gonna have to paint it and you're gonna go desert, desert flood Camouflage. Right, you're not gonna go green Garden variety tank, you're gonna have to camouflage that and spray paint. There's two companies that actually have military Contracts, which is really bizarre. People don't realize it. Small little company called Rust-Oleum a lot of people use their spray paint.
Speaker 1:No, everyone should know Rust-Oleum.
Speaker 2:But the parent company is our PM, industries, our PM. I'll double check the share price today. Now, this might not be something that you get today, because when you build a tank, you got to build the tank right and then the next thing you got to do is get the tank out there and then, finally, you would paint the tank. Rpms around 94. Still, it had a big update, unfortunately, today. I thought I could give you a cheap price for your listeners today.
Speaker 2:The other one is sure when Williams? Shw is the stock symbol there. Now, what's interesting about sure when Williams? Not only do they have military contracts, they have government contracts. Now I don't want to sound Deceitious, but let's say, for example, they have a government contract and someone, let's say, in Congress on Capital Hill, gets evicted out of their office like a Nancy Pelosi and the new guy that comes in to take her office, they, they want it repainted. They're gonna use, actually, sure, when Williams paint so the White House, congress, government offices and as well as military. So sure when Williams, besides housing, new home construction Sure, when Williams, stock symbol SHW there.
Speaker 2:And today is the same story. It's up a little bit off. It's um, it's. It was Back in July it was a 283 dollars. It actually is Not far off of that level. We're 245. So sure, when Williams and I don't know if it's gonna be a God send if interest rates are on starting on a decline that we get the 30 year fix back down. This might entice people to get out of homes. You get out of homes or you stay in a home. You might have to repaint that home, but either way, paint, whether it's from residential, military or Government. Believe it or not, those two companies might be worthy of some upside. At least there might be some increased demand in the next year.
Speaker 1:Right, and even when people don't have a lot of money, the government seems to have it and doesn't stop spending it to the deficit spending, and so they have basically a monopoly on Government projects there got to keep.
Speaker 2:That's a.
Speaker 1:That's a recession Proof kind of stock there. I mean, I've heard that there are certain stocks you know there's still gonna be garbage day even if there's a recession, so you can invest in waste management, for example. So we were talking before the show We've got about two minutes left here About what are some stocks that do well no matter what happens in the next 90 days, and you were mentioning tech stocks. So why did you say that?
Speaker 2:Well, I think, either way, we still use technology our lifestyle. No one can live without. You know, driving in a car texting. You know, here in America at least, it's illegal but everyone does it. It's funny. I've even seen state troopers texting and in their phone, while you know, going down I-95 here in Florida. So technology is one the carriers have always made money. But they borrowed Verizon and 18t borrowed all boatload of money to build out 5g rates go down. Those stocks are starting to see recovery. 18t people will still spend money and pay for their phone. You just said it. You come up here to America people say get me an iPhone because people are still gonna use that Communication and they have to pay that bill before they go to McDonald's. In my humble opinion, people will pay right to upload to.
Speaker 1:Social media. There's nothing of more of a necessity besides food and water and housing. Then your, your, your, your, basically it's your everything device right. It's your entertainment, it's your communication, it's for work, it's for everything.
Speaker 2:It's changed in. In our lifetime, or my lifetime as a kid, I could drive a bike without a helmet. Now kids have a cell phone and they need that cell phone and they have plans. So what plan? It's T-Mobile, it's 18t in Verizon and I think those companies Maybe they don't go up to the moon and make a three, four hundred percent return in the next year. However, I think it's a safe trade. They pay a dividend and and it's I think at this point in time it's a good trade to get back into you.
Speaker 1:And so you're saying that that's. Two out of the big three had borrowed a lot of money, so are you saying there's one?
Speaker 2:Yeah, verizon certainly has a huge debt load on their 5g built out AT&T. You know they still had structural issues. But I do believe that if you put a, if you put a gun to my head as a new investor with limited cash, at&t has a lower share price than Verizon, a more seasoned I, I would probably prefer Verizon.
Speaker 1:You know, at this point, Okay, yeah, and, and I'm interested in some the disruptive Companies in that space, but they're they're using those big threes networks. So so you can't it's like the infrastructure. You can't get around the fact that even if you're investing in some other company, they're using one of the big threes networks, true, so so thank you for coming on, john, really appreciate it. Where can people go to learn more about you and your work?
Speaker 2:Well, if they go to, our website was designed for you know we keep talking about J person as and it's a private fund I run, but they go to persons planet calm. We created a lot of different indicators and studies on various trading platforms, charles Schwab for one. So, if you go to, you know these indicators are built on tasty works, charles Schwab, we have. We have indicators on thinkorswim Trade station and so basically, a lot of the indicators over the years that I've developed to help stock traders and traders in general, those are on and you can find all of that information on persons planet calm.
Speaker 1:Persons with an S and we're gonna put that in the description box below. Thank you, john, for coming on, really appreciate your time.
Speaker 2:Thanks a lot, have a great, have a great week, man. Thank you, sir, you.